Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Magic face FaZe in the upper bracket semifinal of the Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs, a best-of-three Counter-Strike match scheduled for 28 May at 16:00 UTC. The 1% implied probability reflects FaZe's substantial competitive standing within the professional scene, though magic's qualification to this stage indicates they've cleared meaningful opposition. For programmatic traders, the settlement mechanics present a notable edge case: the 50-50 resolution clause for cancellations or delays beyond seven days creates a binary hedge opportunity if fixture postponement becomes probable.

Historical precedent suggests FaZe's odds should anchor closer to 85–92% in matchups against lower-seeded opponents, based on their consistent top-four finishes across recent Valve-sponsored events and their roster stability. Magic's path to this semifinal warrants scrutiny—their prior tournament results, map pool strength, and recent roster changes directly inform whether the current 1% reflects genuine undervaluation or appropriate risk assessment. Traders should cross-reference their recent LAN performances and head-to-head records if available.

Key catalysts include official roster confirmations (substitutions or stand-ins materially shift win probability), map veto announcements released typically 24 hours pre-match, and any technical issues affecting practice schedules in the final week. Monitor Stake's official tournament channels and HLTV for fixture updates; the seven-day delay clause makes schedule stability a tradeable variable. Conditional orders tied to roster announcements or map pool releases offer structured entry points for those tracking this match programmatically.

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.