Major League Cricket: Seattle Orcas vs Texas Super Kings

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is the Major League Cricket match between Seattle Orcas and Texas Super Kings, scheduled for 5 July 2026 in Pomona, California, where Texas Super Kings are already the confirmed winners of the season opener after defeating Seattle Orcas by six wickets with nine balls remaining [1][6]. This 100% YES probability reflects a settled outcome rather than a live prediction, as the match has already concluded and the result is officially published by ESPNcricinfo [1][7].

Historically, when a match has already been played and the winner is declared, prediction markets lock at 100% for the winning side, mirroring how conditional orders in trading platforms execute once a settlement is confirmed [3][5]. Comparable cases in sports markets show that once a result is finalised—whether by wickets, runs, or an on-field tiebreak like a Super Over—the market resolves immediately, leaving no room for price movement [1][2]. Programmatic traders would treat this as a post-settlement asset, bypassing entry logic and instead verifying the official scorecard before confirming the trade [6][7].

Traders should monitor the official match report on ESPNcricinfo for any late amendments, though no such changes are expected given the decisive nature of the victory [1]. Key dependencies include the finalisation of the scorecard and the absence of any forfeit or walkover rulings that might alter the declared winner [4][8]. Recent highlights confirm Tim Seifert’s century for Seattle Orcas and Faf du Plessis’ contribution for Texas Super Kings, reinforcing the match’s finality [7]. No further announcements or schedule updates will affect this market, as the settlement window ends on 12 July 2026, well after the result was confirmed [1][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.