Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing Ducks and Shanghai Sharks are due to play a CBA semi-final game on 22 May, and the market settles on the team that wins the completed match, including overtime. For a programmatic trader, the useful baseline is the recent head-to-head: Shanghai beat Beijing 99-88 on 17 May and 81-66 on 20 May, while Beijing took one game 87-82 on 15 May. That sequence shows a short playoff series with clear game-to-game swings rather than a stable edge, which is why single-match pricing can move sharply on lineup news and venue changes. With the crowd currently at 0% YES, the contract is effectively being treated as unresolved rather than assigned a side.

The main catalysts are straightforward: confirmed tip-off status, any postponement or rescheduling, and whether either team reports late injury or rotation changes before the game. In an automated workflow, the relevant inputs are the league schedule feed, official team announcements, and live score providers, because a postponement leaves the market open until the game is completed, while a cancellation with no make-up would push settlement to 50-50. If the game starts on time, the final score after overtime is decisive, so bots and conditional orders should key off the completed result rather than regulation-time status.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.