Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 3 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 3 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Total Sets: O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Match O/U 38.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Match O/U 36.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Match O/U 40.5 | 100% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 3 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 4 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 4 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 4 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set Handicap +/-2.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 3 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 4 Winner | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Total Sets: O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| Wimbledon ATP: Adam Walton vs Dino Prizmic Set 2 Winner | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of wimbledon atp: adam walton vs dino prizmic. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Adam Walton and Dino Prizmic in the Wimbledon ATP, originally scheduled for June 29, 2026 at 6:00AM ET. This market will resolve to …
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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