SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13

Platform comparison

Market context

SpaceX’s thirteenth Starship test flight, scheduled to deploy 20 V3 Starlink satellites and attempt a second ship splashdown, was cleanly aborted at T-0 on 16 July 2026 just before liftoff, with no official cause disclosed yet [3]. The 0% crowd-implied YES probability reflects this immediate abort, mirroring how markets typically price in-flight failures or pre-launch scrubs as near-certain NO outcomes until a successful re-attempt is confirmed [1]. Historically, similar Starship test flights that faced aborts—such as Flight 12’s engine shutdown during ascent—also saw probabilities collapse to zero, only recovering after a successful subsequent launch cleared the technical hurdle [10].

Traders should monitor SpaceX’s official updates and FAA advisories for a re-launch window, which is expected within days given the clean abort and resolved FAA investigation [1][5]. Key catalysts include the next static-fire confirmation for Ship 40 or Booster 20, any revised launch schedule from Pad 2 at Starbase, and explicit statements on the abort cause [2][5]. The primary backup window opened on 16 July, but conservative timelines could push liftoff to the week of 20 July if final inspections extend [5]. Programmatically, conditional orders should trigger only upon a confirmed launch clearance and T-0 countdown initiation, as pre-launch probability spikes are unreliable without explicit go-ahead signals [1][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.