Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - First Team to Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Germany and Côte d’Ivoire meet in a World Cup group match that settled 2-1, with Germany coming from behind after Côte d’Ivoire scored first and then conceded twice to Deniz Undav. For this market, the only question is who struck first within 90 minutes plus stoppage time, and the finished result shows that the opening goal came from Côte d’Ivoire rather than Germany.[1][2]

For traders reading a 100% crowd-implied YES on Germany, the key contextual point is that first-goal markets are often driven by headline pre-match strength rather than the narrower sequencing of events inside the game. In comparable matches, a favourite can still win the fixture while losing the first-goal race, especially when the underdog starts aggressively or scores from a set piece. Here, the live match reports and post-match coverage explicitly describe Côte d’Ivoire as the side that led before Germany’s late comeback, which is the relevant historical analogue for modelling this market class.[1][2][3]

Programmatically, this is the sort of market a bot or conditional-order system would treat as a binary event with a strict event-time boundary: confirm the starting line-up, monitor the official match feed for the first credited scorer, and ignore any goals outside the 90-minute window plus stoppage time. A resilient workflow would also watch for postponement, abandoned-match rules, and whether the settlement source is using the official FIFA match report or a secondary feed, because those dependencies matter more than the final scoreline in a first-to-score contract.[1][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.