England vs. Costa Rica

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Active sub-markets

Market context

England will face Costa Rica in a FIFA International Friendly on Wednesday, 10 June 2026. The 11% implied probability for a Costa Rica victory reflects the substantial gap in competitive ranking and recent form between the two nations. England currently sits in the top ten of the FIFA rankings, whilst Costa Rica typically operates in the 20–30 range. The match falls within a congested international window, likely scheduled between domestic league seasons, which affects squad availability and preparation depth for both sides.

Historical precedent suggests friendlies involving established European sides against Central American opponents rarely produce upsets. England's last five friendlies against comparable opposition show a pattern of comfortable victories or draws, with losses occurring only when fielding significantly rotated squads. Costa Rica's recent record in friendlies against top-20 nations shows sporadic competitive moments but few outright wins. The current 11% probability appears calibrated to account for squad rotation risk—England may field an experimental XI given the fixture's non-competitive status—rather than reflecting Costa Rica's baseline capability.

For programmatic traders, the key catalyst window opens with squad announcements approximately two weeks before the match. Monitor whether England names a full-strength side or prioritises rest for players returning from domestic cup finals. Costa Rica's preparation intensity and injury updates matter less directionally but affect volatility. Conditional orders keyed to squad-list releases would capture the most significant repricing. The settlement deadline of 20:00 UTC on match day allows for live-trading opportunities as team sheets confirm, though the probability trajectory suggests limited upside volatility unless England announces major absences.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.