Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 10?

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Market context

Shanghai's daily maximum temperature on 10 June 2026 will be recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and binned into a range bracket. The settlement mechanism relies on historical weather data pulled from Weather Underground, with the specific observation time spanning the full calendar day. Traders evaluating this market programmatically would need to establish a data pipeline that queries the Weather Underground API or scrapes the historical archive page post-settlement window closure, cross-referencing against local meteorological records to confirm the official high.

June in Shanghai typically sees daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings above 35°C. The 0% crowd probability suggests either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity across the full range. Historical June data from Pudong shows occasional spikes to 36–37°C during early summer heat events, particularly in years with strong subtropical high-pressure systems. Comparable markets on Shanghai temperatures have resolved across the full spectrum, indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus.

The key dependency for this market is the East Asian summer monsoon pattern and any anomalous high-pressure systems developing in late May or early June 2026. Traders monitoring China Meteorological Administration forecasts and seasonal climate outlooks from mid-May onwards would gain signal advantage. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 10 June, creating a hard cutoff; any temperature recorded after that point is excluded, making the exact observation protocol at Pudong Station material to final resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.