Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The event is whether the Senate can complete and pass a reconciliation bill before the end of the settlement window, with the House and committee texts already the main gating items. The current 0% crowd price looks consistent with how tightly timed this process has become: both chambers first had to adopt a common budget resolution, then the Senate Homeland Security, Judiciary, and related House committees had to file reconciliation language by 15 May, leaving only a short runway for floor action before 31 May. For a trader using alerts or conditional orders, the practical question is whether the process is still on a live legislative track or has slipped into a procedural stall.

Comparable budget-reconciliation episodes usually price like a binary pipeline: once committee instructions are issued, odds can stay low until the text is actually filed, then jump only if leadership schedules floor time and whip counts hold. Here, the Senate passed the budget resolution on 23 April, and the House followed on 29 April, so the framework exists; the missing step is final Senate passage. CBO scored the Senate committee draft at roughly $72 billion in direct spending effects over the decade, which tells you the bill is not a symbolic placeholder but a substantive package that still has to clear amendment and vote thresholds.

The immediate catalysts are official committee releases, the Senate floor calendar, and any statement from leadership about aiming for passage before 1 June. Ballotpedia reported on 7 May that the Senate committees had released a first version, while CBO’s publication shows the measure is already in scored form, which is the sort of signal a programmed workflow would use to tighten monitoring. The key dependency is that the Senate must actually take up and pass a reconciliation bill in time; if there is no floor motion, no cloture issue blocks final passage, but there is also no event to settle YES.

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Methodology

We track Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.