Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Donald Trump's public communications pattern—particularly his use of personal attacks and derogatory language toward political figures, media personalities, and rivals—forms the basis for this market. The resolution criteria centre on whether he will publicly insult a specified individual between now and 31 May 2026, encompassing statements across social media, press conferences, rallies, and interviews. The 9% implied probability suggests traders assess this outcome as unlikely, though the definition captures a broad range of negative characterisations from formal accusations to colloquial mockery.

Historical precedent offers calibration points. During Trump's first presidency (2017–2021), public insults of named figures occurred with measurable frequency—targeting media outlets, Democratic politicians, and former appointees. His post-presidency communications through Truth Social have maintained similar patterns, though with variable intensity depending on news cycles and political developments. Comparable markets tracking Trump's rhetorical behaviour have typically resolved affirmatively when the resolution window extended beyond six months, suggesting the current 18-month window and low probability may underweight baseline rates of his public speech patterns.

Traders implementing automated monitoring should track Trump's scheduled public appearances, Truth Social posting activity, and media interview bookings. Recent coverage of his 2024 campaign activities and ongoing legal proceedings (Reuters, January 2025) indicates sustained public engagement. The market's sensitivity hinges on whether the unnamed individual remains politically salient during the period—proximity to election cycles, legislative debates, or legal developments involving Trump directly correlates with increased likelihood of public commentary. Conditional order logic might weight probability upward if specific political events materialise.

Methodology

This page reviews Who will Trump publicly insult by May 31? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.