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Presidential Election Winner 2028

Five-platform snapshot of "Presidential Election Winner 2028" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

JD Vance 20% Marco Rubio 14% Gavin Newsom 12% Jon Ossoff 6% Volume: $641.3M Liquidity: $36.9M Closes: 7 Nov 2028
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Presidential Election Winner 2028

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 20% 80% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle Trade this market →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 20% 80% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain Trade this market →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD Trade this market →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR Trade this market →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) Trade this market →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
JD Vance20%
Marco Rubio14%
Gavin Newsom12%
Jon Ossoff6%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez5%
Kamala Harris4%
Josh Shapiro3%
Pete Buttigieg2%
Tucker Carlson2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson2%
Eric Trump1%
Elon Musk1%
Jalen Brunson1%
Tim Walz1%
Gretchen Whitmer1%
Wes Moore1%
Ron DeSantis1%
LeBron James1%
Andy Beshear1%
Glenn Youngkin1%
Ivanka Trump1%
Stephen Smith1%
Tulsi Gabbard1%
Pete Hegseth1%
JB Pritzker1%
Donald Trump1%
Jamie Dimon1%
Donald Trump Jr.1%
Nikki Haley1%
Vivek Ramaswamy1%
Greg Abbott1%
Kim Kardashian1%
Zohran Mamdani1%
Michelle Obama1%
Ro Khanna1%
Thomas Massie1%
James Talarico1%
Person BG0%
Person CZ0%
Person Q0%
Person AY0%
Person R0%
Person CG0%
Person W0%
Person BO0%
Person CK0%
Person Y0%
Person BQ0%
Person AD0%
Person AU0%
Person CQ0%
Person AE0%
Person AV0%
Person AF0%
Person AW0%
Person CR0%
Person AG0%
Person AX0%
Person BV0%
Person AH0%
Person BW0%
Person AK0%
Person AZ0%
Person BY0%
Person AM0%
Person AO0%
Person AS0%
Person AT0%
Person BD0%
Person BE0%
Person CC0%
Person BK0%
Person CF0%
Person CI0%
Person AA0%
Person BI0%
Person BS0%
Person DA0%
Person AB0%
Person BL0%
Person BT0%
Person CH0%
Person CO0%
Person X0%
Person BP0%
Person Z0%
Person CN0%
Person AC0%
Person AJ0%
Person BM0%
Person BU0%
Person CP0%
Person CT0%
Person AL0%
Person BZ0%
Person CU0%
Person AQ0%
Person V0%
Person CX0%
Person BH0%
Person T0%
Person BF0%
Person CE0%
Person DB0%
Person S0%
Person BJ0%
Other0%
Person CL0%
Person AR0%
Person BR0%
Person CM0%
Person AI0%
Person BX0%
Person CS0%
Person AN0%
Person BA0%
Person U0%
Person BC0%
Person CB0%
Person CW0%
Person CD0%
Person CY0%
Person AP0%
Person BB0%
Person CA0%
Person CV0%
Person BN0%
Person CJ0%

Market context

Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 20% probability to presidential election winner 2028. The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolv…

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How fast are USDC deposits?
Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
James WilliamsJames WilliamsPrediction Market AnalystandDavid ParkDavid ParkSports Data Analyst

Trade Presidential Election Winner 2028 on Polymarket Review UK

Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.

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