Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump would have to resign, be permanently removed, or otherwise cease to be President before 31 December 2026 for this market to settle Yes; a temporary transfer of powers would not be enough. The crowd’s 6% implies a low but non-trivial tail risk, which is typical for a binary constitutional event where the base case is continuity rather than interruption.

The nearest historical analogue is Nixon’s resignation in 1974, the clearest modern example of a president leaving office before the scheduled end of a term under political pressure. The 25th Amendment is the main procedural frame here, but its Section 4 route has never been used to force a president out, and it requires the vice-president plus a majority of the Cabinet, then a two-thirds vote in both chambers if contested. That makes the event structurally hard to trigger, even when political rhetoric is loud.

For traders running this programmatically, the highest-signal inputs are formal acts, not commentary: a resignation announcement, a Cabinet/vice-presidential declaration, impeachment movement with removal prospects, or any certified permanent incapacity. Recent coverage has noted renewed calls and proposals around the 25th Amendment after Trump’s Iran decisions, but also that there are no signs of Cabinet revolt or vice-presidential support, which keeps the probability anchored unless an explicit process begins. Policy schedules, court dates, and health-related announcements matter only if they produce a formal change in office status.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.