Market statistics
- Total volume
- $1.1M
- 24h volume
- $967K
- Liquidity
- $47K
- Open interest
- $125K
- Comments
- 76
Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Available prediction outcomes (7)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
A potential bilateral meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in 2026 would represent a significant diplomatic engagement between the world's two largest economies. The market conditions on the duration of their handshake—measured in seconds from initial contact to separation—contingent on video documentation of the event occurring within the settlement window. This requires both a confirmed meeting date and filmed evidence of physical contact, creating dual dependencies that explain the current zero probability assessment.
Historical precedent suggests handshakes between US presidents and Chinese leaders typically last between three and eight seconds, though notable exceptions exist. Trump's 2017 handshake with Xi at Mar-a-Lago lasted approximately nineteen seconds and became widely circulated, establishing a baseline for unusually extended contact. The 2016 Trump-Xi meeting at Mar-a-Lago and subsequent bilateral encounters provide comparable data points, though diplomatic handshake duration varies significantly based on context, positioning for photographers, and bilateral relations at the time of meeting.
Traders monitoring this market should track official diplomatic calendars and statements from both administrations regarding planned summits or state visits. The absence of scheduled meetings as of late 2024 underpins the current probability. Key catalysts include formal announcements of bilateral summits, state visit confirmations, or multilateral forum attendance where both leaders are scheduled. Trade tensions, Taiwan-related developments, and broader geopolitical shifts would influence both the likelihood of a meeting occurring and the diplomatic tone that might affect handshake duration. Programmatic monitoring of official State Department and Chinese Foreign Ministry press releases would provide earliest notification of confirmed meeting dates.
Wikipedia Context
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Long jumpThe long jump is a track and field event in which athletes combine speed, strength and agility in an attempt to leap as far as possible from a takeoff point. Along with the triple jump, the two events that measure jumping for distance as a group are referred to as the "horizontal jumps". This event has a history in the ancient Olympic Games and has been a mo
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Long jump at the OlympicsThe long jump at the Summer Olympics, is grouped among the four track and field jumping events held at the multi-sport event. The men's long jump has been present on the Olympic athletics programme since the first Summer Olympics in 1896. The women's long jump was introduced over fifty years later in 1948, and was the second Olympic jumping event for women a
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Long truss
The Long truss is a timber truss bridge system developed by Stephen Harriman Long and first realized in the Jackson Bridge, built in Baltimore in 1829 to carry a highway over the Baltimore and Ohio Railroad. First patented in 1830, subsequently refined through additional patents in 1836 and 1839, and promoted through builder-oriented pamphlets, the system co
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Long-thumbed frogThe long-thumbed frog, Fletcher's frog or barking marsh frog is a species of non-burrowing ground frog native to south-eastern Australia. The species belongs to the genus Limnodynastes. The twelve species in the genus are characterised by a lack of toe pads. Following phylogenetic analysis, the species was placed in L. peronii clade group alongside L. depres
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade How long will Trump and Xi shake hands when they meet? on PolyGram
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