Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed as the Iran war continues, with transit calls near zero for weeks and oil prices surging over 30% since March[1]. President Trump has declared the strait’s reopening a prerequisite for any ceasefire with Tehran, yet peace negotiations show minimal progress and he has imposed a naval blockade against Iran[1]. The passage, which once carried 20% of global oil and gas, was briefly reopened on 21 April 2026 but closed again the following day, leaving commercial shipping suspended[2].

Historically, such closures have persisted for months unless a major geopolitical shift occurs; the 8% crowd-implied probability reflects this entrenched stagnation, as no sustained recovery has materialised since the April reversal[2]. Programmatic traders should monitor IMF PortWatch’s 7-day moving average directly via API, setting conditional orders to trigger only if the metric hits 60, while cross-referencing MarineTraffic or ShipFinder data to account for ships altering GPS tracking during transit[1][4]. Key catalysts include Trump’s next diplomatic statement on Iran, any announced naval de-escalation, and real-time updates from the Strait of Hormuz Live Tracker, which now flags war-risk insurance premiums and stranded vessel counts hourly[2]. Recent NBC News reporting confirms that actual transit figures may be higher than reported due to GPS spoofing, a critical nuance for algorithmic validation[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

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What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

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Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.