Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is the real-world trigger here: the market pays out **Yes** once IMF Portwatch publishes a seven-day average of at least 60 arrivals, so the practical question is whether commercial flows can sustain a normalised level, not just briefly spike on a single day.[1][2] For power users running this like a data feed, the key variable is the moving average itself; a bot or alerting workflow should watch the Portwatch series and ignore ships that are not counted in that dataset, because settlement depends only on that published measure.[1][2]

The recent frame is mixed but still recovery-led. Reuters reported in April that traffic was still far below normal, with fewer than ten per cent of usual volumes and only seven vessels in 24 hours, while later June coverage said ships were only “trickling through” and that it could take weeks or months to clear the backlog and remove mine-related constraints.[11][10][13] That history explains why a 62% implied chance is not a certainty: the market is pricing a gradual return, but one that still depends on operational clearing, security conditions, and whether the reopening holds long enough for the seven-day average to stay above the threshold.[1][10][13]

For traders, the catalysts are the same items a monitoring script would ingest: Portwatch updates, shipping advisories, and any fresh U.S.-Iran or regional security announcements that could either reopen capacity or interrupt it again.[12][15] The most useful approach is to track the daily count alongside the rolling average, because once the seven-day mean reaches 60, the contract can resolve immediately even if the underlying traffic later slips back.[1][2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.