Colorado Governor Democratic Primary Winner

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Democratic primary for Colorado’s governor, scheduled for 30 June 2026, with incumbent Jared Polis barred from a third term. Michael Bennet and Phil Weiser are the confirmed contenders, and the current 68% YES probability suggests a market leaning toward Bennet, though the race remains open.

Historically, Colorado Democratic primaries for governor have been tightly contested when the incumbent is ineligible, as in 2018 when Polis won a crowded field. In 2014, the primary was less divisive, but the 2026 contest mirrors the 2018 volatility, where early polling shifted significantly before the final vote. This context frames the 68% probability as plausible but not definitive, reflecting Bennet’s seniority while acknowledging Weiser’s rising support.

Traders should monitor candidate announcement schedules, early polling releases, and any potential run-off triggers. A recent voter guide from CPR highlights the key issues and candidate positions, offering a baseline for evaluating momentum [3]. Programmatically, conditional orders could be set to adjust positions based on polling thresholds, while copy-trading bots might track sentiment shifts in real time. The settlement window ends 30 June 2026, so timing is critical for execution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Colorado Governor Democratic Primary Winner on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.