Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

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Market context

The real-world event is whether at least the threshold number of commercial ships is recorded as transiting the Strait of Hormuz on any single day before the market closes, using IMF PortWatch’s finalised daily “Arrivals of Ships” data. In practice, that means the cleanest way to monitor it is programmatically: pull the daily series, wait for a day to be finalised before counting it, and compare each settled observation against the listed threshold rather than relying on live AIS snapshots that can be revised or incomplete. IMF PortWatch is the governing source for settlement, and the market only cares about vessel categories it includes, not every craft visible on marine trackers.[9][7]

Historically, this kind of line has been highly sensitive to disruption. Argus reported that Hormuz ship traffic was down 94% since the Iran conflict began, with Kpler noting the last vessel to transit on 28 February and JMIC recording only three tankers on 1 March, which shows how quickly the daily count can collapse in a security event.[1] At the same time, the same reporting notes an 18 June memorandum to end the conflict and restart movement towards pre-war levels within 30 days, which matters because any reopening or partial normalisation would feed directly into the daily transit series that decides the market.[1]

For traders running bots, copy-trading rules, or conditional orders, the live question is not “is the strait open?” but whether any *final* daily print crosses the threshold before 30 June. Watch for formal shipping corridor announcements, mine-clearing or inspection timetables, and whether commercial movements resume in a way that shows up in PortWatch’s finalised daily arrivals rather than in real-time position feeds. If traffic returns unevenly, a single spike day can resolve the market yes, so programmatic monitoring should alert on every new finalised IMF PortWatch observation rather than on rolling averages or traffic headlines.[1][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

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