Which NFL players will be traded?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

NFL player trades occur regularly during the offseason and occasionally mid-season when teams reassess roster needs or salary cap constraints. The settlement window extends to July 22, 2026, capturing the bulk of the 2026 offseason trading period, which typically runs from the NFL Draft (late April) through training camp. A 2% implied probability suggests the market is pricing in either a specific player with exceptionally low trade likelihood or a cohort where most rosters remain stable.

Historical precedent shows that roughly 15–25 notable trades occur annually across the league, though the volume concentrates among underperforming veterans, expiring contracts, and players in cap-strapped situations. The 2023–2024 offseason saw high-profile moves including Saquon Barkley to Philadelphia and Kirk Cousins to Minnesota, whilst 2022 featured the Deshaun Watson trade to Cleveland. Traders evaluating this market should cross-reference contract structures, remaining guaranteed money, and team salary cap positions—variables that determine trade feasibility more reliably than performance metrics alone. Programmatically, conditional orders tied to contract restructuring announcements or coaching changes would capture relevant catalysts.

Key monitoring points include team financial disclosures (typically released in March), draft capital allocation (signalling rebuild intentions), and injury reports affecting player valuations. Recent reporting from ESPN and The Athletic on offseason roster moves provides real-time signals. Teams announcing new general managers or coaching staff often trigger reassessments of existing rosters. Traders should track official NFL transaction announcements and cross-verify with league-accredited sources, as rumour-driven markets frequently misprice trades that fail to materialise.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.