# of views of MrBeast video day 4?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast’s latest YouTube upload is being measured by its view count after the first 96 hours, with the market resolving to the relevant bracket once the platform counter is assessed at that point. For a trader running this programmatically, the key input is not the current thumbnail or headline, but the live view trajectory versus the market’s bracket ladder, with the settlement rule that an exact boundary goes to the higher range. That makes the market most useful as a simple classifier: ingest the channel’s public view counter, compare it with prior 24-hour and 72-hour pace, and update orders as the video approaches the 96-hour mark.

The current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests the market is effectively priced away from the named outcome, which is consistent with a strong consensus elsewhere in the bracket set. Comparable MrBeast day-four markets have tended to cluster sharply around a small number of adjacent ranges rather than spread evenly, because his uploads often follow a recognisable decay pattern after the initial surge. Public commentary in the creator economy has also pointed to recent four-day totals moving lower than earlier peaks, with one recent Think Media discussion citing a drop from 119 million to 78 million views across uploads. In practice, a trader watching this market through bots or copy-trading tools would typically key off the same pattern: initial acceleration, then whether the curve holds above or below the next bracket before the 96-hour close.

The main catalysts are mundane but decisive: publication timing, whether the video lands during a normal upload window, and any unusually strong sharing from MrBeast’s social accounts or collaborators. A late thumbnail or title change can also alter click-through enough to shift the 96-hour total materially, especially if the first-day push is already fading. The resolution source is MrBeast’s own channel view counter, so the cleanest workflow is to poll the channel directly rather than rely on third-party estimates, while using external trackers only as secondary confirmation of pace.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.