Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
58% | 42% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
58% | 42% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| December 31 | 58% |
| October 31 | 42% |
| September 30 | 23% |
| August 31 | 12% |
| July 15 | 0% |
| July 31 | 0% |
Market context
Iran has already moved from rhetoric to partial collection in the Strait of Hormuz, with multiple reports in 2026 saying some commercial vessels were asked to pay “service” or transit fees, sometimes described as as much as $2 million per voyage.[3][14][18] That matters for a 0% market reading because the rule is about an official, generally applicable charge, not one-off payments or informal vetting costs; Iran has repeatedly said it is *not* imposing a toll, but is charging for navigational, environmental or other maritime services instead.[2][4][16]
For comparable cases, the best template is a programme that is announced, documented and repeatable, rather than ad hoc enforcement at the point of passage. Reuters reported in April that Iran was *proposing* fees as part of a wider settlement framework, while later reporting in July noted a 60-day toll-free period under a memorandum with the US, with the dispute turning on what happens after that window ends.[15][16][17] For a power-user, this market is best handled with event-driven monitoring: watch for formal Iranian ministry or parliament statements, any published tariff schedule, and whether collection is framed as mandatory for all commercial vessels or just a defined subset.
The main catalysts are policy announcements, not ship-by-ship anecdotes. Reuters reported on 28 July that Oman had proposed a regional management plan with only voluntary fees, which could blunt the odds of a unilateral Iranian toll regime and would be a key dependency to track if negotiations continue.[10] The practical trigger is a clear, official instruction to pay on general passage through the strait, plus evidence that collection has started on that basis; absent that, the market is likely to continue treating the current fee reports as insufficient for settlement.[1][2][16]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Iran charges Hormuz fees by 2026? on Polymarket Review UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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