Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying question concerns whether Mojtaba Khamenei, the younger son of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will depart Iranian territory at any point before 30 April 2026. The resolution criteria require confirmed exit from Iranian airspace or maritime boundaries, with physical landing or arrival in another country necessary to trigger a "Yes" outcome. Transit through international airspace alone does not satisfy the condition.

Mojtaba has remained within Iran throughout his public life, operating primarily through security and intelligence networks rather than diplomatic channels. Historical precedent suggests members of Iran's supreme leadership rarely travel abroad; his father has not left Iran since 1989, and comparable figures like Qasem Soleimani (before his 2020 assassination) maintained strict operational security protocols. The 0% crowd probability reflects both the structural isolation of top-tier regime figures and the absence of credible reporting suggesting imminent travel plans. Any shift would require extraordinary circumstances—medical emergency, political upheaval, or strategic repositioning—rather than routine movement.

Traders monitoring this market should track Iranian political stability indicators, particularly succession dynamics and factional tensions within the Revolutionary Guards. Recent reporting from Reuters and AP News has documented internal disagreements over economic policy and regional strategy, though these have not translated into leadership departures. Scheduled international summits or diplomatic initiatives involving Iran's government could signal broader regime movements, whilst any public health announcements regarding Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would warrant immediate reassessment of succession scenarios and Mojtaba's operational status.

Methodology

We track Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.