How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?

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Market context

The real-world event centres on whether Israel will launch aerial bombs, drones or missiles that impact the sovereign soil of countries beyond its own territory, the West Bank and Gaza, during 2026. This excludes strikes on embassies unless they land within the host country’s territory, and it does not count intercepted projectiles or ground-based artillery.

Historically, Israel’s cross-border strikes have rarely exceeded two or three countries in a single year, even during intense campaigns. The 2026 Iran war saw US and Israeli strikes focused almost exclusively on Iran, with no confirmed Israeli air strikes on other nations’ soil [1][2][6]. While Iran attacked six GCC countries in March 2026, Israel’s retaliatory actions remained confined to Iran, supporting the current 0% crowd-implied probability that Israel will strike multiple countries [1][3].

Traders should monitor announcements from the US and Israeli defence ministries regarding renewed major strikes on Iran, as well as any shifts in Hezbollah’s operational posture in Lebanon that might draw Israeli air power beyond Iran’s borders [2][7]. A key dependency is whether the US-Israel coalition expands its campaign to include other regional actors, which would be a necessary catalyst for Israel to strike additional countries [6][7]. Recent reports indicate preparations for renewed major strikes, but no indication yet of multi-country targeting [7].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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Resolution & payout

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