US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the June 2026 US-Iran written agreement that opened a 60-day negotiating period on Iran’s nuclear programme and linked it to wider security and sanctions issues. Reporting at the time said the framework was meant to be signed in Geneva on 19 June, but later coverage noted that some follow-on proposals and “gentleman’s agreements” were still unsigned, which matters because this market only resolves Yes if a qualifying written instrument is actually mutually signed or formally adopted by the deadline.[3][4]

For market-reading, the closest comparator is the 2015 JCPOA process: interim language can move quickly, but the binding document usually comes only after technical text is settled and political objections are managed. The current 1% crowd price implies traders think the gap between a headline framework and a qualifying final instrument remains wide, especially given reports that Iran had not yet endorsed further documents and that the next stage was still being negotiated.[4][6] In a programmatic setup, that means treating the June announcement as a state change, not a settled contract, until there is explicit confirmation of signature/adoption.

The main catalysts are straightforward: any published joint communique, signing ceremony, IAEA-related inspection language, sanctions-waiver text, or statements that the draft has been adopted “as such”. AP reported that the initial pact triggers a 60-day negotiation clock and keeps military action as a fallback, so traders should watch for whether those talks produce a text with signatures before 31 August, rather than merely extensions or implementation notes.[1][3] Reports also suggest the next rounds could hinge on technical access, frozen assets, and the reopening of regional shipping routes, all of which are the sort of dependencies that can surface in alerts, calendar bots, or conditional orders before the market reprices.[1][2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.