US-Iran ceasefire continues through 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question centres on whether direct US military strikes against Iranian territory will occur between now and end-September 2026. The definition is narrow: air strikes or surface-to-surface missiles that physically impact Iran itself. Proxy actions, naval engagements, or strikes on Iranian forces outside Iran do not trigger resolution to "No". The 96% crowd probability reflects an expectation of continued restraint, though the settlement window spans nearly two years—a substantial timeframe for geopolitical shifts.

Historical precedent suggests both escalation and de-escalation are possible within similar periods. The January 2020 Iranian ballistic missile strikes on US bases in Iraq followed the Soleimani assassination yet stopped short of further escalation. The April 2024 Iranian drone and missile barrage against Israel prompted no direct US retaliation against Iranian soil, despite Israeli strikes on Iranian air defences. These episodes demonstrate how both sides have managed tit-for-tat cycles without crossing into sustained direct conflict. Traders should note that the 96% probability assumes this pattern holds through 2026, pricing in significant geopolitical stability.

Watch for announcements regarding nuclear negotiations, Israeli military actions that might trigger Iranian response, and US domestic political transitions. The IAEA's quarterly reports on Iranian nuclear programme compliance carry weight, as do statements from US defence officials on Iran policy. Regional tensions around the Strait of Hormuz or proxy conflicts in Yemen and Syria can shift risk calculus rapidly. For programmatic approaches, conditional orders tied to IAEA compliance announcements or US administration statements would capture meaningful probability shifts before crowd repricing occurs.

Methodology

This page reviews US-Iran ceasefire continues through 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

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