US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying question concerns whether the United States and Iran will execute a binding written agreement before 31 July 2026. The settlement criteria are deliberately broad: any substantive accord signed by authorised representatives qualifies, whether both parties sign a single document or separate instruments that reference the same terms. This breadth encompasses everything from a narrow technical arrangement on sanctions relief to a comprehensive nuclear accord, making the resolution threshold lower than markets focused on specific deal types.

Historical precedent suggests the 83% implied probability reflects genuine structural shifts in negotiating posture rather than speculative optimism. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 demonstrated that US–Iran agreements are achievable despite decades of hostility, whilst the Trump administration's 2018 withdrawal showed such accords remain fragile. More recently, the 2023 prisoner exchange and the ongoing indirect talks through Oman indicate both parties maintain backchannel communication infrastructure. Comparable markets on US–China trade agreements or EU–Russia sanctions negotiations have historically resolved affirmatively when probability exceeded 75%, suggesting the crowd is pricing in a meaningful baseline of diplomatic activity rather than tail-risk optimism.

Traders should monitor announcements from the State Department, Iranian Foreign Ministry statements, and reporting from Reuters and Bloomberg on indirect negotiations. Key dependencies include US domestic political transitions, Iranian domestic elections scheduled for 2024, and regional flashpoints affecting negotiating leverage. Programmatically, conditional orders tracking statements from both governments' official channels would flag genuine movement; the settlement window's 18-month duration allows traders to adjust positions as catalysts emerge or fade.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.