Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran would need to make a public pledge, or sign an agreement that explicitly ends all uranium enrichment, before 31 July 2026 for this market to settle **Yes**. That is a narrow bar: even a temporary suspension, a regional consortium arrangement, or a deal that leaves enrichment on Iranian soil would only count if the language plainly amounts to ending enrichment entirely, because the market resolves on the public commitment itself rather than implementation.

The base rate is low because Iran has spent years moving in the opposite direction. After the U.S. withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018, Tehran first reduced compliance and then said in 2020 it had abandoned all JCPOA limits on enrichment[1][2]. More recently, the IAEA and arms-control groups have described Iran as continuing enrichment at elevated levels, while talks have centred on verification, stockpiles and the future of enrichment rather than a full shutdown[3][4]. For a power-user, that makes the current 14% implied probability consistent with a market that would usually need an abrupt diplomatic break, not incremental de-escalation, to flip.

The main catalysts are formal statements, not rumours: a written U.S.–Iran understanding, an Iranian presidential or foreign-ministry announcement, or an IAEA-backed package that explicitly bans enrichment. Watch for any resumption of Oman-mediated talks, announcements around IAEA reporting cycles, and whether Tehran frames any concession as “temporary” or “voluntary”; those formulations would usually be insufficient unless they clearly cover all enrichment[4]. Programmatically, this is the kind of market to monitor with keyword alerts on “end enrichment”, “halt enrichment”, and “no enrichment”, and to flag source documents rather than commentary, because settlement depends on the exact public wording.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.