Bitcoin price on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the final closing price of the Binance BTC/USDT one-minute candle at noon Eastern Time on 25 June 2026, which will determine the resolution of this prediction market. Traders approaching this programmatically would feed live price data into a conditional order script, monitoring the exact timestamp to execute trades before the candle locks.

Historical volatility frames the current 1% YES probability for lower ranges; Bitcoin surged above $126,000 in October 2025 but fell to $60,074 in early 2026, vacillating between $65,000 and $73,000 in March [4]. The market’s leading outcome, $60,000–$62,000 at 67%, aligns with recent daily closes near $61,520, suggesting the current probability reflects a stable mid-range rather than a crash scenario [1][2].

Key catalysts include the Binance Spot API update announced for 25 June 2026, which could alter data feeds or latency near the settlement window [6]. Traders should also watch for macroeconomic announcements scheduled for late June, as institutional adoption trends and halving events have historically driven major price surges [4]. With live prices hovering around $60,881, the market implies a continuation of this range unless a sudden dependency shift occurs [5][6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.