US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran publicly announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a formal signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. The market resolves affirmatively if any substantive portion of this agreement text reaches public circulation by 1 July 2026, 23:59 ET. The 90% implied probability reflects strong historical precedent: major US-Iran agreements have typically been disclosed within days of announcement, not withheld beyond a fortnight.

Previous comparable cases establish the baseline. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in 2015 saw full text publication within 48 hours of announcement. Even the more contentious Trump-era negotiations, which ultimately produced no signed accord, involved leaked or officially released draft language within similar timeframes. Governments typically release agreement texts to facilitate domestic ratification processes, satisfy legislative oversight requirements, and establish legal clarity with counterparties. Iran's own media apparatus has historically amplified diplomatic wins through text disclosure. The 90% figure accounts for a narrow scenario where negotiations collapse between announcement and signing, or where parties agree to an unusual confidentiality period—both low-probability outcomes given the public ceremony already scheduled.

Traders should monitor official State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry announcements between 19–25 June, as this window historically captures post-signature text releases. Watch for Congressional notification filings, which typically trigger public document availability. Secondary indicators include Reuters, AP, and BBC reporting on whether either party has committed to confidentiality terms. Programmatically, set alerts for document repositories (state.gov, un.org) and cross-reference against major news APIs to detect text availability. The resolution hinges on "widely available," not exclusive leaks, so mainstream news coverage confirming text access would suffice.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.