Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hamas agreeing to disarm would mean a public, official commitment to give up or dismantle its weapons in Gaza, either fully or in a defined stage. The 0% crowd-implied probability fits the current language well because the group has repeatedly set preconditions rather than accepted unilateral disarmament, including full Israeli withdrawal, a broader political settlement, or guarantees tied to reconstruction and security arrangements.[1][2][4]

For context, recent reporting shows Hamas has been willing to discuss *limited* or conditional weapons handling, but not a clean surrender of arms on the terms demanded by Israel and the US-backed framework. Reuters reported in April that Hamas would not even enter disarmament talks without assurances of full Israeli withdrawal, while AP later said the group was considering a proposal that would decommission some weaponry in stages under a wider transition plan.[1][7] That gap matters for programmatic trading: a bot should treat headlines about “talks”, “frameworks”, or “conditions” as low-signal unless they contain explicit acceptance language from acknowledged Hamas leadership.

The main catalysts are formal statements from Hamas, mediator readouts, and any sequencing change in ceasefire negotiations, withdrawal timetables, or governance handover. The most price-sensitive events are announcements from the mediating states, US-aligned transition bodies, or Hamas’s political wing confirming acceptance, rejection, or amendment of the disarmament clause; by contrast, reports that Hamas wants troop withdrawal first have repeatedly pointed the other way.[1][3][9][13] For tooling, the clean trigger is a source-authenticated statement that uses plain language like “we will disarm”, while mixed formulas such as “phase-based decommissioning”, “surrendering heavy weapons”, or “handing weapons to a neutral party” need manual classification against the market’s settlement rules.[4][7][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Will Hamas agree to disarm by 2026? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.