San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming MLB fixture between the San Francisco Giants and Miami Marlins, scheduled for 4:10PM ET on 20 June, presents a decisive contest where the Giants are the sole resolution target for a win. With the crowd-implied probability sitting at 100% YES for the Giants, the market treats this outcome as virtually certain, despite the game having already concluded on the previous day with a 6–3 Marlins victory. This stark discrepancy between the market’s certainty and the actual result mirrors historical cases where delayed data feeds or misaligned settlement windows create artificial certainty before official statistics are reconciled. In such instances, power-users approaching the market programmatically would flag the latency risk, noting that conditional orders based on pre-game probabilities often fail when real-time results contradict the implied odds.

Traders must monitor the official final statistics recognised by the league, as the primary resolution source hinges on these verified data points rather than preliminary scores. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms Max Meyer’s eighth consecutive decision win for the Marlins, a catalyst that directly undermines the market’s 100% Giants certainty and suggests a potential settlement delay if the game is postponed or if make-up rules apply. The dependency on the league’s official confirmation means that any announcement regarding game cancellation or tie resolution would trigger a 50–50 split, a dependency that copy-trading bots must account for when executing conditional orders. Without immediate verification of the final score, the market remains open, leaving power-users to evaluate the tooling’s ability to handle such latency-induced anomalies.

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.