Türkiye vs. United States

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The United States and Türkiye meet in a 2026 FIFA World Cup group-stage match in Los Angeles, with FIFA listing kick-off at 02:00 UTC on 26 June and the fixture falling in the final round of Group D games.[2][4] A crowd price around **23% YES** implies an underdog outcome, which is consistent with a market treating this as a live, binary event rather than a strong pre-match favourite.

Historically, this is a low-frequency head-to-head: the two sides have played four times since 1991, with the USMNT holding a 2-1-1 edge and a 6-5 goal advantage.[1] The United States also won the last two meetings, while Türkiye’s only win in the series came in 2003 at the FIFA Confederations Cup.[1] For a power-user running a model, that small sample means the better inputs are team strength proxies, tournament context, and line movement rather than direct head-to-head extrapolation; ESPN’s current market screen has the USA priced shorter than Türkiye, with the draw also materially live.[3]

The main catalysts are procedural rather than speculative: confirmed line-ups, any injury or rotation news from the final group-match schedule, and the exact incentive structure once earlier Group D results are known.[2][4] Because this is the last group game, programme logic should watch for knockout qualification states, since teams can change intensity or selection if advancement is already secured. Recent federation and fixture updates have already locked in the opponent and venue, and any late reporting on squad availability or travel management is the sort of input that usually feeds conditional orders or bot-triggered repricing before kick-off.[2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.