Haiti vs. Scotland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture on 13 June 2026. The match forms part of the tournament's opening phase, with settlement occurring shortly after the final whistle. The 62% YES probability reflects market expectation that Haiti will either win or draw; a Scotland victory or goalless result would resolve NO.

Historical precedent suggests caution with group-stage underdogs at World Cups. Haiti qualified for the 1974 tournament and lost all three matches without scoring; their return to the finals in 2026 marks a 52-year gap. Scotland has participated in ten World Cups since 1954 but has never advanced beyond the group stage in the modern era. Head-to-head records are absent—these nations have never met competitively. Recent qualifying campaigns show Scotland ranked 37th in FIFA standings (as of late 2024), whilst Haiti's ranking sits considerably lower. The crowd probability may reflect uncertainty around Haiti's conditioning and squad depth after a lengthy absence from the tournament stage.

Traders should monitor team news releases from both federations through early June, particularly injury updates and final squad confirmations. Venue allocation and altitude effects—the 2026 tournament spans multiple North American cities—warrant attention, as do any late tactical shifts announced by either manager. Conditional orders tracking Scotland's broader group performance could prove useful; if Scotland secures early points against stronger opponents, the Haiti fixture becomes less consequential, potentially shifting team selection and intensity. Settlement timing at 01:00 UTC on 14 June allows for overnight European trading after the match concludes.

Methodology

This page reviews Haiti vs. Scotland across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Polymarket Review UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.