France vs. Iraq - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is the FIFA World Cup Group I match between France and Iraq, which concluded on 22 June 2026 at Philadelphia Stadium with France winning 3–0 after a rain delay. Kylian Mbappé scored twice, while Ousmane Dembélé added the third, sealing a dominant performance for the defeated Qatar 2022 finalists[1][3]. The market, which resolves on the exact score after 90 minutes, has already settled to a 0% probability for any outcome other than the actual 3–0 result, reflecting the match’s completion and finality[1].

Historically, prediction markets on exact scores in completed matches collapse to zero for unlisted outcomes once the result is confirmed, as seen in prior World Cup fixtures where late goals invalidated pre-match scorelines[3]. For a power-user evaluating tooling, this market serves as a clear case for conditional order cancellation: any bot programmed to trade non-3–0 scores would have triggered an immediate stop-loss upon the final whistle, avoiding dead capital[1]. The 0% crowd-implied probability is not a speculative signal but a mechanical reflection of the match’s settled status.

Traders should monitor official FIFA match reports and rain delay protocols for future fixtures, as weather disruptions can alter scoring dynamics and invalidate pre-set score predictions[1]. Recent coverage from ESPN confirms the rain delay directly impacted the match timeline, a dependency that algorithmic traders must encode into their scoring models for upcoming games[1]. With the settlement window ending 2026-06-22, no further catalysts exist for this specific match, rendering active trading irrelevant for unlisted scores.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.