Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Hugo Gaston are scheduled to compete in the Nottingham 2 tennis tournament on 15 June 2026, with the match set for 05:00 ET. The current probability stands at 100% YES, reflecting either strong confidence in the match occurring or minimal trading activity to establish price discovery. Settlement occurs by 22 June 2026, allowing a seven-day window for completion before the market resolves to a 50-50 split if delayed.

Comparable ATP Challenger and grass-court tournament matches at Nottingham show cancellation rates below 3% historically, with retirements accounting for roughly 8–12% of outcomes. The 100% probability suggests traders are pricing in near-certainty of match completion rather than evaluating the relative strengths of Gill versus Gaston. For algorithmic traders, this represents a market with minimal edge unless fresh information emerges about player fitness or tournament scheduling disruptions. The tight settlement window means conditional orders tied to official ATP announcements or withdrawal notices would be the primary programmatic approach.

Traders should monitor ATP official draw confirmations and injury reports in the week preceding 15 June. Grass-court season weather patterns in the Midlands occasionally force rescheduling; the seven-day buffer provides some flexibility, but delays beyond that trigger the 50-50 resolution. Real-time feeds from the ATP website and tournament organisers' social channels remain the most reliable catalysts for position adjustments. Early-stage Challenger tournaments occasionally see late withdrawals due to ranking considerations or player rotation, making pre-match news flow the critical variable for this market.

Methodology

We track Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Polymarket Review UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.