Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup Group D match between the United States men’s national team and Türkiye is set for 10:00 PM ET on 25 June 2026 at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, California. This is the first World Cup encounter between the two nations, though they have met four times since 1991, with the USA winning two, losing one, and drawing one [1]. The USMNT’s last two victories against Türkiye were convincing, while their sole loss occurred in the 2003 Confederations Cup [1]. Historically, matches between these sides have been tight, averaging just 2.75 goals per game, suggesting that exact-score markets often hinge on single-goal margins rather than high-scoring outliers.

For a power-user approaching this programmatically, the 5% implied probability on a specific exact score warrants scrutiny against recent line-up announcements and tactical dependencies. Türkiye’s form remains volatile: they can dominate elite teams on a good day but struggle with consistency [5]. Traders should monitor pre-match press conferences for confirmed starting line-ups, particularly the status of USMNT attackers Brenden Aaronson and Patrick Agyemang, whose fitness directly influences scoring probability [1]. Additionally, weather conditions in Los Angeles and any late substitutions could shift goal expectations. According to FOX Sports, all Group D matches will be streamed live, offering real-time data feeds for conditional order execution [2].

Programmatic traders might deploy conditional orders tied to in-play goal events, adjusting exposure as the match progresses. Given the low historical goal average and the USA’s recent dominance, exact scores like 1-0 or 2-1 may carry higher latent value than the market currently prices. The settlement window closes at 02:00:00Z on 26 June 2026, ensuring resolution based solely on 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalties. Any deviation from listed outcomes resolves to “Any Other Score,” making precise timing and data ingestion critical for automated strategies.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.