Tunisia vs. Japan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia face Japan in a FIFA World Cup group match at Estadio BBVA in Guadalupe, Mexico, with the market currently showing a crowd-implied **0% YES**. For a power-user running this programmatically, that kind of price usually means the contract is being treated as effectively settled against the event by the crowd, so any trading logic would need to check whether the market is mis-specified, already functionally locked, or simply mispriced relative to the final sporting state. ESPN’s match listing shows Japan were on 1 point and Tunisia on 0 points going into the game, with Japan listed as the clear moneyline favourite at -215 and Tunisia at +650, which is consistent with the market leaning heavily away from a Tunisia win or other YES condition if the settlement is tied to that side. [1]

The main historical frame is the head-to-head: Japan have won three of the four recorded meetings since 2002, with Tunisia winning once, so the baseline comparative record favours Japan rather than an upset or draw-heavy interpretation. ESPN also lists the prior results on this fixture page, including Japan’s 3-0 and 2-0 wins, which matters for bots or conditional-order setups that use historical priors to weight low-probability outcomes, especially when a market is already near zero and only reacts to late line-up or venue information. [1][8] In practical terms, this sort of market is usually approached by monitoring whether the underlying match state matches the settlement definition, then comparing live odds movement against the pre-match distribution rather than assuming the crowd probability is informative by itself. [1]

Catalysts to watch are the starting XIs, any confirmed injuries or late rotations, and the confirmed competition context, because ESPN’s match feed already embeds the fixture time, venue and broadcast status, while the odds snapshot shows Japan favoured with a total around 2.5 goals, implying the market expects a controlled game rather than a wide-open one. [1] For a programmatic workflow, the most useful trigger is often the first official team-sheet release: if Japan rest key attackers or Tunisia field an unexpectedly strong side, that can move derivative markets quickly even when the headline YES price looks inert. ESPN’s live match page and FOX Sports’ highlight clips indicate there has already been in-game scoring activity around this fixture, so any automated strategy should verify whether the market you are evaluating is based on the same settled match event, the same leg, or a separate settlement condition before placing orders. [1][2][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.