Belgium vs. IR Iran - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Belgium meet IR Iran in a FIFA World Cup group match at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, with the market resolving on the **90-minute scoreline only** and ignoring extra time or penalties. That matters for programmatic traders because an “exact score” market is usually a thin-tail outcome: the current 4% implied chance for **YES** is consistent with a high-variance event where only a small number of scorelines carry most of the weight, while everything outside the listed set routes to **Any Other Score**.[3][5]

Comparable pricing in this fixture points to Belgium as the clear favourite, with previews quoting Belgium around **-230** and Iran around **+650**, and one forecast landing on **Belgium 2, Iran 1**. FOX Sports also lists Belgium at about **-235** and Iran at **+644**, which is the sort of setup that usually compresses exact-score probabilities towards a few Belgium-win combinations rather than broad spread across many outcomes.[2][3] Iran’s World Cup record is also relevant context: they have appeared multiple times but have not progressed from the group stage, which reinforces why models often start from a modest Iran scoring expectation rather than parity.[7]

For a hands-on workflow, the key catalysts are pre-match line-up confirmations, any late injury news, and changes to the market’s settled match status if kick-off is delayed or rescheduled. FIFA’s match centre lists the game for **today at 19:00** in Los Angeles, and CBS notes the fixture as a Sunday 3 p.m. ET kick-off, so automated traders should watch for any divergence between scheduled and actual start times before placing conditional orders or copy-trading exact-score exposure.[3][5] Because exact-score books are sensitive to line-ups and late tactical changes, even a small shift in expected goals can move the cheapest candidates between 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 2-1, and the catch-all bucket.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket Review UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.