Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy rate will be set by three consecutive FOMC decisions spanning March through June 2026. Each meeting produces a new target range for the federal funds rate, with the upper bound serving as the operative metric for this market. A qualifying move occurs only when that upper bound shifts downward (a cut) or upward (a hike) relative to its pre-meeting level. The current 0% probability on YES suggests the crowd expects no rate changes across all three sessions—a flat hold scenario.

Historical precedent offers limited direct comparison, as extended pause periods of three consecutive unchanged meetings have become less common since the Fed's 2022–2023 hiking cycle. Between March and June 2025, the Fed held rates steady across three meetings, though that followed a period of active cuts. The present environment differs materially: inflation data, labour market strength, and geopolitical risk will determine whether the Fed maintains its current stance or adjusts. A trader automating conditional orders would need to track the Fed's own forward guidance, which typically shifts weeks before meetings, and monitor real-time PCE inflation releases and employment reports.

Watch the February and May employment reports (released in early March and early June respectively), as well as PCE inflation data in late February and late May. The Fed's communications in late February and late May will signal its thinking ahead of the March and June meetings. Any material shift in recession probability or inflation expectations could trigger repricing across the three-meeting window. Traders should programme alerts for FOMC statement language changes and dot-plot revisions, which historically precede rate moves by one to two meetings.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.