Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Platform comparison

Market context

The market hinges on whether the Federal Open Market Committee raises the upper bound of the target federal funds rate during its June, July, or September 2026 meetings. The current 0% probability for a cut reflects a sharp pivot in Fed policy: after cutting rates three times in 2025, the committee unanimously held rates steady at 3.5–3.75% in June and eliminated forecasts for any 2026 reductions [1][5]. Instead, nine of 19 officials now project a rate hike by year-end, with median expectations rising to 3.8% [6][10].

Programmatic traders should monitor the June FOMC minutes released 8 July, which confirmed no cuts until early 2027 and flagged a 70% likelihood of a September hike amid renewed Iran conflict tensions [7]. Key catalysts include the July 28–29 meeting statement and the September 15–16 dot plot, which will clarify the median rate path [8]. CME Group’s FedWatch tool now prices a 68.8% chance of a September hike, up from 62% the prior day [7].

Historically, such rapid shifts from cutting to hiking cycles occur when inflation overshoots targets while geopolitical shocks disrupt supply chains. With inflation persisting above 2% and Middle East tensions escalating, the Fed’s dual mandate now prioritises price stability over employment support [6]. Derivatives markets still assign nearly 60% odds to at least one hike by December, reinforcing the 0% cut probability [11].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.