Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the Federal Open Market Committee’s upcoming decisions on the target federal funds rate during its April, June, and July 2026 meetings. Specifically, traders are assessing whether the upper bound of the rate will fall (a cut), rise (a hike), or remain unchanged across these three sessions. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for a qualifying cut reflects a market consensus that the Fed will not lower rates in this window, with the frontrunner outcome being “Pause–Pause–Pause” at 87% [1].

Historically, similar periods of rate stability have occurred when inflation remains above the Fed’s 2% target despite economic moderation, as seen in mid-2026 when the Fed maintained rates at 3.50%–3.75% [2][3]. In June 2026, policymakers removed language suggesting future cuts and shifted their dot plot to indicate a possible hike by year-end, with the median projection rising to 3.8% [3]. This “higher-for-longer” stance, driven by persistent inflationary pressures, has consistently suppressed expectations for rate cuts in comparable recent cycles [2].

Traders should monitor the FOMC policy statements and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conferences following each meeting, particularly for shifts in language regarding inflation versus growth support [3]. Key catalysts include the June and July policy statements, which may signal whether the Fed will hold steady or hike, as derivatives markets currently assign a nearly 60% chance of at least one rate increase by end-2026 [6]. Programmatically, conditional orders could be triggered by changes in the dot plot or by Warsh’s comments on Iran-related inflation spikes, which previously delayed cut expectations [3]. The next decision dates are April 29, June 17, and July 29, 2026 [4][5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.