Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map Handicap: TYLOO (-1.5) vs All Gamers (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: TYLOO (-2.5) vs All Gamers (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map Handicap: AG (-1.5) vs TYLOO (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: All Gamers (-2.5) vs TYLOO (+2.5) | 0% |
Market context
TYLOO and All Gamers face off in the lower bracket quarterfinal of the VCT China Stage 2 Playoffs, a best-of-three match scheduled for 20 August 2026 at 04:00 ET. The match determines progression in China's regional Valorant circuit, where both organisations compete within Riot's franchise structure. Settlement occurs at 14:00 ET the same day, providing a tight window for match completion and result confirmation.
The 100% implied probability warrants scrutiny against historical precedent in Chinese Valorant competition. TYLOO has maintained consistent playoff participation across VCT China seasons, whilst All Gamers' bracket seeding reflects their stage performance. Lower bracket matches in this region have occasionally experienced scheduling shifts due to technical issues or administrative delays, though outright cancellations remain uncommon. Traders should cross-reference VCT China's official match archives and recent playoff formats to assess whether this probability reflects genuine certainty or insufficient liquidity in the market.
Catalysts centre on official VCT China communications regarding match confirmation, team roster availability, and any venue or broadcast infrastructure changes. The 14-day postponement window (ending 3 September 2026 at 23:59 ET) creates conditional order opportunities: traders can programme alerts for rescheduling announcements that might alter match dynamics or team preparation. Monitor Riot Games' esports portal and regional broadcast partners for fixture updates. Equipment failures or player availability issues, whilst rare, have historically triggered delays in Chinese regional play; automated monitoring of team social channels provides early warning signals for such developments.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade Valorant: TYLOO vs All Gamers (BO3) - VCT China Stag… on Polymarket Review UK
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