LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The North American Challengers League Playoffs upper bracket semifinal between Supernova and Conviction is scheduled for 22 May at 7:00 PM ET, with the match set to conclude by the settlement window on 23 May at 04:00 UTC. This best-of-three encounter determines which team advances toward the grand finals of the secondary competitive League of Legends circuit in North America. The 0% implied probability suggests either minimal trading activity or strong consensus that one outcome is heavily favoured, though the market's thin liquidity means early position-taking carries execution risk.

Comparable Challengers League playoff matches historically resolve without delay or cancellation, though technical issues during broadcast have occasionally extended play beyond initial schedules. The resolution criteria specify a 50-50 split if the match extends beyond seven days without completion, creating a hard deadline that traders should monitor. Recent Challengers League fixtures have maintained their scheduled timing, with the league's infrastructure proving reliable through the 2024–2025 season.

Traders should track roster announcements and player availability in the days preceding 22 May, as substitutions or last-minute roster changes can shift team composition and preparation depth. Monitoring the official Lolesports schedule and team social media accounts provides early warning of potential postponements. For programmatic approaches, conditional orders tied to match confirmation announcements would reduce manual oversight, whilst tracking the broadcast start time against settlement deadlines helps identify execution windows for late-stage position adjustments.

Methodology

We track LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.