Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 100% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 100% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 50% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 50% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 50% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Game Handicap: ITZ (-1.5) vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (+1.5) | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 0% |
Market context
INTZ e-Sports and Vivo Keyd Stars Academy met in a League of Legends best-of-three in the Circuito Desafiante Playoffs, an upper-bracket semi-final that was scheduled for 24 August 2026. The match page now shows the series completed with Vivo Keyd Stars Academy winning 2-0, which makes the live 0% YES read consistent with a finished result rather than an open contest.[1][4]
For pricing, the main historical anchor is the pair’s recent form and seeding rather than a vague league average. Liquipedia shows both teams reaching playoffs from strong group-stage records, while recent schedule pages and matchup listings had Vivo Keyd Stars Academy listed ahead on ranking and pre-match win probabilities, with one preview even marking INTZ as the underdog and projecting a 0:2 scoreline.[2][3][4][7][12] In a programmatic workflow, that means the market would typically be handled as a binary event keyed off the official series result, with low tolerance for stale quotes once a scoreline lands or the event page flips to finished.[1][3]
The practical catalysts were straightforward: whether the fixture started on time, whether the bracket remained intact, and whether any reschedule or cancellation notice appeared before the settlement window closed. Public listings had the start time in late UTC on 24 August, and the result was already recorded on scoreboard pages shortly after, so an automated trader would mainly watch for late bracket changes, live score updates and any official postponement signal before the 03:30 UTC settlement cut-off.[1][5][10][14]
Methodology
We track LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO3) - Circuito Desafiante Playoffs across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade LoL: INTZ e-Sports vs Vivo Keyd Stars Academy (BO3) … on Polymarket Review UK
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