LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season

Platform comparison

Market context

FlyQuest face Disguised in an LCS regular-season best-of-three, and the market is already pinned at **100% YES** for FlyQuest. That price is consistent with the historical matchup, which has been one-sided: the head-to-head record in the supplied results shows FlyQuest with multiple wins and Disguised with none, including a 2-0 in the 2026 spring regular season and a 2-1 earlier in 2026. [1][8][10]

For a power user running this programmatically, the main task is not model-building but event validation: at **100%** the only meaningful edge is in settlement risk, not match outcome. The watchlist should therefore include official schedule confirmation, whether the BO3 starts on time, and whether any postponement pushes the series beyond the 7-day window, because that would force the contract to **50-50** rather than resolve to either side. The market description also matters operationally: if the match begins but is not completed, forfeiture or disqualification can still produce a winner, so a bot should monitor live score feeds rather than relying only on pre-match listings. [2][5]

The practical catalysts are the same ones that break automated assumptions in esports feeds: venue changes, broadcast delays, roster or technical pauses, and late cancellations. Recent listing pages place the match on 1 August 2026, but the decisive data point for settlement is whether a completed official result appears before the deadline window closes on 2 August 2026 at 05:00 UTC. If you are using conditional orders or copy-trading logic, the safest trigger set is “series officially started” versus “no official result by deadline”, rather than simply “scheduled on calendar”. [2][4][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track LoL: FlyQuest vs Disguised (BO3) - LCS Regular Season across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.