Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Any Player Rampage | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Match Winner | 54% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Execration (+1.5) | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Game Handicap: XctN (-1.5) vs PlayTime (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 80.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 90.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
PlayTime’s BO3 against Execration in the Games of the Future playoffs is a live-style event for traders because it sits inside a compressed bracket where late roster, lobby, or stream changes can matter more than broader team reputation. Match listings place the series on 2 August at 05:00 UTC, and the event page frames it as a Round of 12 playoff tie, so any programme slippage, walkover, or format adjustment is the first thing a programme-checking bot should verify before treating the market as cleanly binary.[5][8][16]
The historical read is mixed but still leans towards PlayTime. Recent listings show PlayTime ranked above Execration in third-party world rankings, while pre-match community and bookmaker snapshots have favoured PlayTime heavily, with one market page showing roughly 87% on PlayTime and another bookmaker overlay listing Execration as the outsider.[5][13] That said, the teams have already met in 2026, including a January BO3 in which Execration won 2-0 at a qualifier, while another match database notes the sides had not met in the prior six months, which is useful context for modelling but not a strong head-to-head sample.[3][15]
For a power-user approach, the main catalysts are confirmation that the match actually starts on schedule, the published BO3 format, and any broadcast or bracket updates from the event feed or official video listings.[1][2][16] If the series is delayed past the settlement window or not completed, the market rules shift away from a normal winner-only outcome, so automated alerts should watch for cancellations, stream blackouts, or bracket reseeding rather than just in-game scorelines.[5]
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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