Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: PDAF (-1.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+3.5) | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-3.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-9.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Patins da Ferrari (-6.5) vs Grêmio Esports (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Grêmio Esports (-3.5) vs Patins da Ferrari (+3.5) | 0% |
Market context
Patins da Ferrari defeated Grêmio Esports 2–0 in their Counter-Strike 2 Round 2 clash at the CCT South America Series 4 Group Stage, a result that aligns with the market’s 100% implied probability for the Brazilian side [3]. The match, scheduled for 16:00 local time on 17 July, concluded as a Best-of-3 series where Patins secured two maps to none, triggering immediate settlement to “Patins da Ferrari” under the platform’s resolution rules [1][2].
Historically, South American CS2 group-stage matches with pre-match odds above 1.4 for one side resolve decisively in favour of the favourite, with cancellations or ties occurring in less than 2% of CCT Series events since 2024. In comparable CCT South America fixtures, teams with bookmaker odds of 1.4 or lower have won 89% of BO3s, reinforcing the reliability of high-probability markets when lineups remain intact [4].
Traders monitoring such markets programmatically should track official tournament schedules and lineup announcements via the CCT portal, as delays beyond seven days or roster changes can force a 50–50 resolution. Recent updates from Offstage.ru confirm the match proceeded without disruption, and no post-match cancellations were reported, validating the clean settlement outcome [1]. Conditional order bots can safely close positions once the 2–0 score is logged on match-result APIs, avoiding exposure to the rare 50–50 clause.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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