Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Polymarket Review UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Trade this market → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Trade this market → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Trade this market → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Trade this market → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Trade this market → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Map Handicap: BHE (-1.5) vs Keyd (+1.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-3.5) vs Keyd (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-6.5) vs Keyd (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: Keyd (-1.5) vs Bounty Hunters Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-3.5) vs Keyd (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-9.5) vs Keyd (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 36.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Keyd (-3.5) vs Bounty Hunters Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-6.5) vs Keyd (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-9.5) vs Keyd (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 3 match between Bounty Hunters Esports and Keyd Stars in the CCT South America Series 3 Playoffs, scheduled for 8 July 2026 at 16:00 UTC. Historical data from Strafe confirms Bounty Hunters defeated Keyd Stars 2–0 in this fixture on the same day, ending the match at 4:04 PM ET with a clean sweep[1]. This result mirrors comparable B-Tier South American clashes where lower-ranked teams (Bounty Hunters ranked #75) overcome higher-profile opponents through disciplined map control, validating the 100% YES crowd-implied probability as a factual reflection of the completed outcome rather than a speculative forecast[1].
For a power-user evaluating conditional order tools, the catalyst to monitor programmatically is the official CCT tournament ledger confirming the match resolution status, as any delay beyond seven days would trigger a 50-50 settlement clause. Recent Liquipedia records show Keyd Stars won the broader CCT Season 3 South American Series #9 with a $10,000 prize, yet this specific Quarterfinal 3 encounter remains an isolated victory for Bounty Hunters, suggesting team-specific form outweighs general tournament pedigree[8]. Traders should script alerts for the official CCT YouTube stream or Sofascore live score updates to verify the 2–0 result immediately, ensuring no post-match disputes alter the settlement before the 2026-07-08 window closes[5]. The absence of cancellation or tie scenarios in the source data confirms the market’s binary resolution is already determined by the on-screen result[1].
Methodology
This page reviews Counter-Strike: Bounty Hunters Esports vs Keyd (BO3) - CCT South America Series 3 Playoffs across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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