Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is a Counter-Strike 2 Lower Bracket quarterfinal match between AM Gaming and Eternal Fire, scheduled for 24 June 2026 at 18:00 UTC within the DraculaN Group A tournament. This BO3 contest determines which team advances, with the market currently pricing a 100% probability that AM Gaming wins. For a power-user building conditional order bots, this extreme skew suggests the algorithm should treat the outcome as a near-certainty, potentially triggering copy-trading scripts that mirror the dominant position without waiting for price confirmation.

Historical head-to-head data frames this probability as consistent with recent trends, where AM Gaming has secured victories against Eternal Fire in prior B-Tier online encounters, including a 2–1 win in January 2026 during the A1 Gaming League Season 11 [3]. Sofascore confirms these previous results, showing AM Gaming’s dominance in direct matchups, while Eternal Fire’s broader stats reveal a 40% win rate over their last five matches [2]. Programmatic traders should weight these historical precedents heavily, as the 100% market price aligns with the empirical record rather than representing an anomalous overreaction.

Key catalysts to monitor include the official match start confirmation on Sofascore and any sudden roster changes or tournament delays that could invalidate the 50-50 tie clause [1]. Traders must also watch for Liquipedia updates regarding schedule shifts, as a delay beyond seven days would trigger the market’s neutral resolution [3]. With the settlement window ending in June 2026, the primary dependency remains the match’s completion; any cancellation or incomplete game would reset the probability to 50-50, a risk that automated systems should flag if pre-match status updates are delayed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Polymarket Review UK?

Zero. Polymarket Review UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.