Trump out as President before 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is whether Donald Trump will resign, be removed via impeachment and conviction, or otherwise cease serving as President of the United States before 31 December 2026. This outcome hinges on permanent removal from office, not temporary invocations such as Section 3 of the 25th Amendment.

Historically, Trump has been impeached twice—first in 2019 over Ukraine-related allegations and again in 2021 following the Capitol riot—yet acquitted by the Senate in both cases, with votes falling short of the two-thirds threshold required for conviction[2][3][4]. No U.S. president has ever been removed via impeachment and conviction; Andrew Johnson, Bill Clinton, and both Trump impeachments ended in acquittal[2][6]. The only president removed from office was through resignation (Richard Nixon’s predecessor, though Nixon resigned before impeachment), while the sole removal via criminal conviction occurred post-presidency, as with Trump’s 2024 New York felony conviction[1]. These precedents frame the current 9% crowd-implied probability as low but non-trivial, given Trump’s unique legal vulnerabilities and the potential for a future impeachment with a more hostile Senate.

Traders should monitor scheduled legal milestones, including Trump’s upcoming sentencing on 26 November 2024 for 34 counts of falsifying business records, which could trigger further political fallout[1]. Key catalysts include any new impeachment resolutions passed by the House, shifts in Senate composition ahead of the 2026 midterms, and public statements from Trump or his allies regarding resignation. A recent BBC analysis notes that impeachment trials have historically failed to remove presidents due to partisan Senate dynamics, but evolving legal pressures could alter that calculus[5]. Programmatically, this market would be approached via conditional orders tied to news feeds tracking impeachment votes or sentencing outcomes, with copy-trading bots adjusting positions based on real-time Senate vote projections.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.