Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The market resolves on whether Anthropic’s Nasdaq Private Market (NPM) valuation reaches the listed threshold by 31 December 2026, with the NPM price updated daily at 1:00 PM ET. As of early July 2026, Nasdaq Private Market estimates Anthropic’s share price at $675.76, translating to a valuation of $1.14 trillion, already 18% above its Series H-1 round of $965 billion [1][2].

Historical precedents in private-market prediction contracts show that secondary valuations can surge rapidly post-funding, with Anthropic leapfrogging OpenAI to become the most valuable AI startup globally after securing $65 billion in May 2026 [6][11]. Comparable markets on Polymarket, such as the one betting Anthropic will hold a higher NPM valuation than OpenAI by June 2026, resolved with an 83% implied probability, reflecting strong momentum in secondary pricing [4]. The current 12% YES probability for this higher threshold suggests traders view the gap between $1.14T and the target as substantial, despite the recent 65% jump from the last round.

Key catalysts include the next funding round announcement, computing infrastructure deals, and Claude enterprise adoption metrics, all of which directly influence NPM pricing. A Reuters report from May confirmed the $65 billion raise and its purpose to expand computing capacity and product offerings, a pattern that typically triggers secondary valuation spikes [6]. Programmatically, traders should monitor NPM’s daily 1:00 PM ET updates via API, set conditional orders tied to valuation thresholds, and track Forge Global and Hiive secondary listings for early signals before official NPM publication [10][12].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Polymarket Review UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Polymarket Review UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Polymarket Review UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.